Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
